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Monday, May 21, 2012

Qualification Recap/Race Predictions - 2012


That was perhaps the least suspenseful Bump Day in recent history and maybe of all time. Oh welps, it was a beeyootiful weekend and I finally got to see the new cars in person. I must agree with nearly all accounts of them looking better in person than on TV. I'm also looking forward to the first laps in 500 race conditions with the new chassis. 


When comparing my previous post's predictions with the actual outcomes, I'm delighted to announce a tripling of accuracy from a year ago by correctly predicting 3 of the 33 drivers in their qualified position. Messrs Power, Bell, and Cunningham all spot-frickin'-on! Whoopty-do. Charlie Kimball's possible shuffle to the back of the field pending the outcome of repairs to the primary 83, however, could also shuffle my accuracy.  Yes, a whopping .0909 accuracy rating for me gives me the slightest hope for predicting the winner.


Now excitement shifts into top gear, for raceday is nearly upon us and I for one cannot wait to see what this ol' Speedway is going to give us this year... Last year's race prediction wasn't far off (if you squint) and given the fact that something out-of-the-already-special norm ALWAYS happens on years that end with 2, 6, or 7, I again foresee this race being one for the ages...


"Are you serious?", you ask. "You can't just have AH-MAZING every year!" 
Fair enough, but tradition and history have their way perhaps nowhere else more than at IMS, sooooo...


Ever the glutton for punishment, I'm not gonna just pick a winner, but a Top 10.

Penske's triple threat will prove to be too much for the rest of the field to handle this day and the continent of Australia erupts in wild celebration as an Aussie finally gets his mug welded to the Borg-Warner Trophy. 


Greg Norman and Vern Schuppan slug a beer and weep with the most bittersweet joy you can imagine. 


Willy P to send OZs into raptures
However, it shan't be pole-sitter Briscoe but Will Power winning his first 500 and Roger Penske's 273rd Indy 500. "Not a real surprise", you say? How about this, he comes from a lap down due to an early race Pit Road penalty (yet again), recovers and covers the field with the most superb and determined drives in the 2nd half of the race since Jaques Villenueve in 1995. It will also come at the expense of dominant teammate Castroneves stumbling late (tripped up by the ever-fickle racing gods perhaps), with his 4th win all but assured.


Marco Andretti 2nd (again), Dixon finishes 3rd, Hunter-Reay 4th, Bell 5th, Briscoe 6th, Kanaan 7th, Franchitti 8th, Rahal 9th, and Newgarden takes 10th and Rookie-of-the-Year voting.  


That's my story and I'm sticking to it.  Think I'm nuts and want to tell me so?  Please do. There's an old joke that goes something like... "I can tell you're crazy because, in those shorts you're wearing, I can clearly see your...  ANNNYWAYYYY, Leave a comment below.


Enjoy your race weekend (I know I plan to), and we'll chat again on the other side of this 96th Indianapolis 500!

Friday, May 18, 2012

Indianapolis 500 Gettin' Serious Time - 2012 (aka Cut-and-Paste Edition)


The rapidly approaching weekend means one thing and one thing only to me.  Gone are concerns for the condition of my lawn or the tidyness of my backyard from kids' toys or the amount of items crossed of my 'to do' list at home... it's qualifying weekend at Indy.


In the past, I've been tuned to some device to hear the qualifying events as they occur. This year, my family and I will attend Pole Day and despite 25 races over 33 years, I'm getting quite excited as I type. Banzai runs for myself and for all the drivers at IMS tomorrow. I plan to also catch as many of you as possible while I'm there.


Having said that, it is now time to make my qualifying predictions, in order, as I've done the previous two years. As we know there are precisely 33 entrants with motors that have tested. Will there even be any bumping? Who knows - it's Indy and it's May and nothing is over until it's over. 


I will guarantee you one thing; this list will be wrong, but such is the life of a 'seer of sooth, sayer of all'.


The PEAK Performance Polesitter: A Sandbaggers Delight - I'm going away from the Fast Friday beasts of Andretti Autosport and going with the suspiciously quiet Penske stable.  By a whisker this year for the pole... Helio Castroneves.
Pole Speed: 227.383


The Top 9: 
Row 1 - Castroneves, Andretti, Dixon, 
Row 2 - Hunter-Reay, Power, Hinchcliffe
Row 3 - Franchitti, Hildebrand, Briscoe


Mid-table Obscurity (18):
Row 4 - Kanaan, Beatriz, Newgarden
Row 5 - Carpenter, Rahal, Kimball
Row 6 - Viso, Sato, Saavedra,
Row 7 - Conway, Bell,Wilson, 
Row 8 - Jakes, Clauson, Pagenaud, 
Row 9 - Tagliani, Cunningham, Barrichello 


Danger Drives (6):
Row 10 - Servia, Jourdain, Bourdais, 
Row 11 - Legge, Alesi, DeSilvestro


____________ Bump Line _______________
Just missing out on this year's fun will be...
Only those who haven't driven to date.


I make these predictions just minutes after the conclusion of Fast Friday practice and prior to the Pole Day Qualifying draw. As always my caveat for predictions is that any mid-table or lower driver forced into a backup car (due to practice crash or what-have-you, will likely move them down a group. In the immortal words of 80s rockers Asia, only time will tell...

Wednesday, May 16, 2012

DZ's Davidsonian-Rambling Trip Memories... 2004 - Act III: Fin.


(CONTINUED FROM PART 2)
...I used every bit of personal soft good to insulate my head from sound, returning to whatever form of rest I could muster...

The next sound I remember hearing was the pitter of a merciful light rain on the tent. I noticed a more balmy temperature as well and settled my mind back to sleep. Waking with the traditional BOOM of the 5am gate-opening shells, we also continued to relax as the rain was also pittering away. I had warned the lads of the impending alarm and we lounged further into the AM.

Once I noted a rather significant presence of daylight, I was surprised to find we had slept to  just a tick before 9AM.  9AM??!! Recognizing the rain had stopped, I bolted up and out of the tent, fearing we were about to need a mad dash just to make it through Gate 6 and into our seats, likely missing much of the beloved pomp and circumstance.

Hearing via the WIBC radio coverage that the morning track schedule was delayed approximately 2 hours settled me into thinking about getting to some breakfast, water, and Acetaminophen into the system pronto. The others rose as well and quickly we fired up the mini gas-grill and polished off a hearty breakfast, secured the belongings and got ready for the Greatest Spectacle In Racing. 

Short of recapping the race, it was certainly memorable and the lads got to see a classic race start build-up. Enthusiasm was short-lived however as a shower came again around Lap 27 and the 2-hour red flag seriously hampered the early momentum. Fortunately, we had PLENTY of beer for just such an occasion. Reliving the previous day' events and we were happy to have the racing resume with Buddy Rice, Sam Hornish, and Dan Wheldon all hanging the top 3, but a crash and yellow and impending pits stops to be made for fuel, another ominous-looking storm approaching made the final strategies quite frantic. Seemingly there were lead changes every lap from 165 on and the thrill of the show was equaled only by the doom-like thrill of weather we faced to the west.

Buddy Rice was leading when heavy rains and lightning came crashing down for the final time of the race and the leader was declared the winner. Oh, "and by the way", it came across the PA system, "please DEPART THE STANDS IMMEDIATELY - THERE ARE TORNADOES IN THE AREA!" Ever-closer lightning strikes made us scurry from the aluminum Pit Road Terrace stands and into a concrete souvenir garage for safety. Thankfully the weather radar was on the TV but it didn't give us a very favorble overview. We passed another hour buying IMS knick-knacks for the loved ones at home (assuming we'd get to see them again), and trying to determine our next move.

The rain let up slightly and lightning seemed to subside. Some reports placed tornadoes both south and west of the Speedway area.  We decided to make our dash from the concrete cover, get wet perhaps, and dash across Georgetown into our Lot 2 confines to break down camp before doomsday struck. We were teased with a decent let-up of rain and headed for camp. About three-quarters of the way back into our run to camp, we could see the wall of rain approaching from the southwest... Time was most certainly our enemy.

The wisdom of the apparent early departure of the Wisconsin boys seemed more evident.  The air cooled as we knocked down soaked camp chairs, and began loading the van. The sweet smell of rain signaled the next wave approaching and we began to thrash violently to get the tents back to packed. Green-gray clouds enveloped us on all sides.  We knew we were losing this race so the mashing and tossing in of anything remaining was greeted with large and very cold drops, pelting us as we ambled into the van and began our navigation away from Lot 2 and hopefully away from danger.

Clearing IMS property, we asked a police officer a recommendation for evading possible tornadoes with surprisingly little assistance. We made a path to the north and west which appeared the next clearest direction, finally winding through neighborhoods to Lafayette Road area and out to 465. We cleared the Marion county North line and were felt as sense of comfort as the sky looked slightly better to the north.  Only as far as Kokomo did we make it before the trailing wall of rain hit us again and we parked at the Hardee's for some shelter and food (and mainly for our driver whose white knuckles were evident for all to see). 

We set out North again with a much clearer vision behind and west of us. The passengers watched in disbelief as the east and south view still contained some very angry-looking skies. We later found out we had missed the Indy tornadoes by being a bit north of the danger but, passed only minutes behind the ones which hit east of Noblesville.  By stopping in Kokomo, we also missed driving right into the second wave that bounced around Lafayette and again hit near Peru, Indiana, approximately 20 minutes north of where we stopped.  Here are the tornado tracks of that day: 


Needless to say we had a few beers remaining and those of us not driving all imbibed a 'bracer' for our final leg home. Our exit to Indiana 24 East found no lights at all (highway or otherwise) in Peru, scattered chunks of fiberglass insulation and siding debris in areas. We all felt as if we just missed something that would've ruined our trip in a major way. Darkness and more reasonable calm settled in the final hour's drive home and we were all thankful to arrive back home again in Goshen, Indiana, tired, thrilled, and a bit frazzled. Our mission to retrieve all personal effects and gear was graciously delayed to Monday. 

I don't recall getting into bed that night. I don't recall what I said to my wife or family either. As much as I wanted to watch the replay of the race, my mind and body let slip that day, May 30, 2004, with great memories and energy spent. 

I vowed to be content with the future decision these guys may make if they either never-ever wanted to try that trip again or if they dared to once again go with me to the 500.

They most certainly did.